* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/19/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 86 88 87 87 83 74 63 47 34 23 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 86 88 87 87 83 74 63 47 34 23 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 83 84 84 83 79 70 56 46 42 42 43 SHEAR (KT) 21 15 12 17 14 22 32 44 49 25 21 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 -3 9 13 14 12 7 0 4 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 147 186 189 190 184 200 207 220 214 184 192 188 168 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 27.7 27.0 24.4 16.6 16.1 17.3 15.7 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 145 144 136 129 106 76 74 74 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 127 126 125 120 115 96 72 69 68 65 65 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -49.1 -48.6 -47.2 -46.9 -46.7 -46.2 -45.5 -44.5 -46.4 -47.7 -48.4 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 43 51 52 51 53 48 35 33 47 57 49 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 47 47 49 50 47 48 52 51 49 38 30 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 162 155 167 184 179 197 205 261 250 197 170 153 141 200 MB DIV 100 70 100 108 67 140 98 56 53 37 27 40 34 LAND (KM) 1032 1109 1184 1120 1059 957 756 644 400 659 944 1205 1428 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.6 29.5 30.7 31.9 34.7 37.8 41.0 44.2 47.0 49.1 50.1 50.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.3 65.3 64.0 60.6 55.5 49.4 44.1 40.1 36.5 33.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 13 18 23 26 25 20 15 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 22 23 20 24 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -30. -35. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -8. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. -30. -33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -8. -13. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 2. 2. -2. -11. -22. -38. -51. -62. -71. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/19/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 10( 27) 10( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)