* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/19/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 39 33 26 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 33 33 36 36 47 52 46 49 38 10 12 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 8 6 8 4 7 16 11 16 8 0 5 14 SHEAR DIR 322 303 292 291 301 300 306 313 332 284 214 234 359 SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.2 23.7 22.8 20.8 19.3 18.1 17.6 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 126 118 115 112 107 97 92 83 78 75 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 109 101 98 95 91 84 80 74 71 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -49.2 -47.9 -46.3 -45.0 -46.0 -47.5 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 54 55 60 63 59 46 39 38 40 53 51 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 18 21 19 17 14 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -104 -99 -106 -112 -127 -131 28 207 217 201 167 125 200 MB DIV 53 32 36 20 -11 -52 -37 11 44 62 23 28 27 LAND (KM) 1658 1520 1382 1288 1199 1082 976 929 950 1077 1284 1535 1300 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.1 34.3 35.2 36.1 37.6 39.4 41.4 43.6 45.4 46.9 48.1 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 51.9 51.8 51.1 50.4 48.4 46.4 44.1 41.8 39.1 35.8 32.2 28.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 11 11 11 11 12 14 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 20 CX,CY: -2/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -12. -17. -17. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -17. -32. -50. -62. -67. -69. -70. -73. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/19/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)