* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/19/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 46 54 56 59 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 46 54 56 59 61 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 44 48 54 60 67 74 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 4 9 14 9 2 9 7 4 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -1 4 3 2 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 147 247 305 202 208 234 267 183 335 340 272 296 250 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 143 138 131 127 123 120 121 122 125 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 137 135 129 120 115 110 107 109 113 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 59 60 61 53 56 52 49 45 40 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 96 92 88 79 79 70 61 71 67 55 49 39 32 200 MB DIV 11 23 35 34 20 17 -12 9 0 -4 21 7 7 LAND (KM) 1275 1346 1419 1471 1525 1584 1634 1690 1737 1817 1958 2158 2185 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.0 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.4 34.2 35.6 37.6 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 3 5 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 17 15 12 10 8 8 9 10 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/19/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/19/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)