* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/19/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 76 77 79 78 73 65 49 33 21 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 75 76 77 79 78 73 65 49 33 21 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 74 75 76 76 70 58 45 38 37 37 38 SHEAR (KT) 17 12 20 21 21 34 44 64 31 23 29 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 9 14 8 2 3 5 3 4 9 SHEAR DIR 178 185 188 187 213 202 216 217 183 197 202 216 212 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.4 25.7 17.9 14.4 16.4 17.0 14.8 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 144 142 133 116 79 72 73 72 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 126 126 125 120 105 74 69 68 67 65 65 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -49.1 -48.0 -48.1 -47.7 -46.9 -46.4 -44.6 -45.7 -48.5 -49.2 -49.7 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 50 53 50 53 50 41 33 42 45 39 29 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 47 47 49 48 49 52 52 56 43 30 24 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 161 178 192 179 180 201 246 275 228 175 131 101 167 200 MB DIV 70 95 112 98 82 110 80 93 37 36 31 19 48 LAND (KM) 1068 1162 1157 1106 1071 848 651 323 428 785 1105 1269 1371 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.3 30.2 31.6 32.9 36.2 39.9 43.8 47.0 48.8 49.2 51.0 54.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.0 64.7 62.6 57.8 52.7 47.2 42.3 37.9 35.7 35.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 12 14 16 22 27 26 22 17 12 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 24 19 27 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -12. -13. -11. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. -4. -14. -18. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. -2. -10. -26. -42. -54. -60. -69. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/19/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 7( 16) 6( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)