* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/19/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 45 42 36 29 24 21 19 20 23 26 SHEAR (KT) 36 34 35 41 48 44 42 38 8 20 25 22 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 10 4 8 10 14 15 13 0 -4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 307 301 299 302 300 308 312 321 250 200 189 211 256 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.5 24.8 23.3 22.5 19.4 18.2 17.1 16.6 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 115 112 109 104 95 91 80 76 74 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 102 98 95 92 88 82 80 73 70 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -48.9 -47.5 -45.5 -47.3 -49.4 -50.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 59 61 57 53 43 38 31 44 40 31 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 20 19 17 10 6 7 30 24 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -105 -103 -109 -107 -119 -128 -59 113 184 196 132 2 -52 200 MB DIV 42 38 30 -1 -51 -69 -10 21 63 10 17 -9 -12 LAND (KM) 1514 1407 1301 1218 1142 1043 963 944 1016 1205 1477 1306 961 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.1 35.1 36.0 36.8 38.2 39.9 42.1 44.9 47.1 48.6 49.8 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 51.5 51.0 50.2 49.4 47.7 45.7 43.1 40.2 36.8 32.9 28.6 23.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 11 13 16 17 16 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 16 CX,CY: 0/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -8. 8. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -21. -38. -54. -61. -47. -54. -56. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/19/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)