* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/19/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 55 61 67 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 48 55 61 67 69 69 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 45 51 60 72 82 87 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 7 6 8 2 3 3 4 2 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 -4 0 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 234 207 186 202 239 227 241 255 42 64 195 195 243 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 138 135 129 125 123 124 127 130 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 136 134 130 126 118 114 111 113 117 120 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 54 55 57 58 56 54 51 50 44 44 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 103 100 89 86 77 80 82 88 89 88 78 61 45 200 MB DIV 23 38 45 24 -6 22 20 -12 -6 -13 17 -1 -15 LAND (KM) 1365 1439 1514 1579 1645 1747 1827 1928 2024 2167 2063 1978 1900 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 30.9 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.7 34.4 35.3 36.2 37.6 39.3 41.2 42.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 16 14 13 12 12 11 13 15 19 25 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -6. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 36. 42. 44. 44. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/19/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/19/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)