* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 73 74 72 66 55 39 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 73 74 72 66 55 39 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 73 72 72 70 62 49 41 36 33 33 35 SHEAR (KT) 19 22 28 23 25 31 40 45 41 44 32 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 8 4 7 13 9 0 0 4 4 10 12 SHEAR DIR 199 196 194 195 189 200 210 200 188 205 227 237 207 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 26.4 19.6 14.7 14.7 13.2 13.3 13.1 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 138 135 123 84 73 71 68 66 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 126 123 121 112 78 70 68 65 63 64 64 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -48.6 -48.2 -48.4 -48.2 -46.9 -45.8 -44.9 -46.3 -47.4 -49.1 -49.9 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 56 56 60 57 49 42 41 43 39 38 40 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 45 45 45 45 48 49 50 47 35 31 22 10 15 850 MB ENV VOR 179 178 174 166 179 191 261 242 213 147 0 68 112 200 MB DIV 74 100 114 120 162 79 76 95 69 39 36 41 48 LAND (KM) 1172 1113 1068 1019 890 656 370 255 664 1017 1296 1345 1287 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.9 32.1 33.8 35.5 39.2 43.4 47.5 50.8 52.9 53.6 55.5 58.1 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.3 65.1 64.5 63.9 60.1 54.4 49.4 44.4 40.1 36.1 35.5 37.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 15 18 21 27 29 25 20 15 9 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 28 21 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -8. -11. -18. -27. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -9. -20. -36. -47. -63. -78. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/19/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 5( 13) 4( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)