* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 32 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 35 32 27 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 29 35 40 45 46 36 41 29 20 19 24 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 9 6 2 15 10 9 -4 1 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 304 289 294 296 312 325 322 324 216 221 225 237 N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.0 23.8 22.8 21.0 19.8 19.2 18.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 114 112 111 106 97 92 83 80 78 78 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 96 94 93 90 84 80 74 72 71 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -49.0 -48.1 -47.8 -50.8 -52.9 -53.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 51 47 37 31 30 26 28 26 26 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 24 20 18 13 8 6 8 12 12 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -108 -109 -99 -117 -116 -127 -25 98 47 9 -36 -75 N/A 200 MB DIV 23 34 -11 -84 -89 -54 -5 31 6 -7 11 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 1450 1358 1271 1251 1236 1160 1069 1077 1186 1347 1583 1452 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.6 35.5 35.9 36.2 37.6 39.6 41.3 42.8 44.2 45.3 46.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.6 50.8 50.0 49.1 48.2 46.2 44.2 41.9 39.1 36.1 32.4 28.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 8 9 12 12 13 13 13 15 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -9. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -19. -32. -47. -58. -61. -61. -61. -63. -67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/19/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)