* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 53 61 67 70 71 70 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 53 61 67 70 71 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 36 42 50 60 72 79 82 81 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 7 5 3 1 5 2 3 4 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -2 -5 1 2 0 2 2 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 185 193 221 235 266 234 122 22 356 262 310 225 250 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 136 134 129 128 126 129 128 128 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 131 126 123 117 116 113 117 117 117 116 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 59 59 55 58 49 43 39 30 36 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 101 91 86 79 80 80 94 110 102 94 67 54 31 200 MB DIV 32 39 25 -4 23 18 10 -3 -4 8 16 6 -8 LAND (KM) 1428 1503 1578 1633 1688 1755 1820 1874 1937 2044 2088 2052 2043 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 31.5 32.2 32.7 33.2 33.8 34.4 34.9 35.5 36.5 37.5 38.4 39.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 4 5 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 28. 37. 43. 45. 46. 45. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/19/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)