* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/19/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 70 71 72 69 59 46 29 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 70 71 72 69 59 46 29 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 69 70 70 67 55 44 37 34 34 36 38 SHEAR (KT) 26 27 24 21 29 48 43 31 36 34 32 34 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 4 9 15 2 7 6 2 2 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 195 184 205 191 192 202 193 172 181 180 186 188 187 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.6 24.5 16.3 13.4 14.5 12.9 12.3 12.0 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 136 136 107 76 70 70 66 66 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 124 121 123 98 72 67 66 63 63 64 64 200 MB T (C) -47.9 -48.5 -48.7 -48.5 -47.1 -46.3 -45.6 -46.9 -47.6 -47.6 -47.6 -46.9 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 57 58 52 45 38 40 42 48 48 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 47 43 48 48 50 51 49 41 29 22 21 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 187 170 170 170 179 223 244 244 137 142 212 244 168 200 MB DIV 94 103 129 168 148 38 73 25 51 60 88 80 56 LAND (KM) 1065 1027 1006 902 752 499 162 374 689 928 1042 1128 1281 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 32.2 33.5 35.3 37.0 41.2 45.3 48.8 51.5 53.6 55.0 57.3 60.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 65.6 65.2 64.1 63.0 58.4 52.5 47.9 44.4 41.9 40.2 39.6 39.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 17 20 23 29 27 20 15 11 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 30 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -15. -21. -26. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -24. -28. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -5. -14. -20. -21. -18. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. -1. -11. -24. -41. -54. -63. -67. -78. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/19/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/19/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)