* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/19/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 37 33 27 22 18 17 17 18 19 DIS SHEAR (KT) 31 37 45 52 44 33 33 13 16 15 15 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 10 4 1 5 16 7 13 1 0 2 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 290 295 297 315 329 340 348 320 250 177 207 219 N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.3 24.5 23.4 22.1 20.9 19.9 19.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 114 112 111 107 102 94 88 83 79 79 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 99 96 94 94 91 87 81 77 74 71 71 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.2 -49.5 -47.9 -48.5 -51.7 -52.9 -53.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 1 0 0 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 50 47 46 37 35 34 34 22 17 23 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 21 18 16 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -112 -99 -101 -110 -114 -125 -11 66 116 98 12 -22 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 -20 -90 -103 -87 -28 34 -11 -21 0 -21 2 N/A LAND (KM) 1368 1336 1313 1317 1325 1329 1297 1334 1409 1533 1681 1566 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.1 35.6 35.9 36.1 37.0 38.5 39.8 41.1 42.4 43.7 45.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 48.9 47.7 46.8 45.8 43.7 41.8 39.6 37.3 34.7 31.9 28.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -20. -36. -51. -61. -66. -69. -71. -71. -74. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -53.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/19/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/19/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)