* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/19/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 44 51 59 65 68 71 70 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 38 44 51 59 65 68 71 70 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 48 57 66 75 81 82 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 7 3 6 2 3 4 1 3 0 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 -1 -1 1 3 3 5 0 2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 168 222 278 255 204 209 190 53 9 316 14 241 249 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 136 133 130 127 126 126 127 127 129 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 127 123 119 116 113 115 116 117 118 117 118 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 60 58 55 50 47 42 38 36 40 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 98 92 82 83 85 89 113 116 115 98 73 63 52 200 MB DIV 36 23 1 31 39 31 4 0 11 5 0 -20 -10 LAND (KM) 1449 1520 1591 1636 1681 1769 1847 1921 2048 2111 2043 2004 1961 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.4 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 31.7 32.3 32.7 33.1 33.9 34.6 35.3 36.5 37.7 39.1 40.2 41.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 13 13 12 12 12 13 15 15 16 22 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 26. 34. 40. 43. 46. 45. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/19/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/19/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)