* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 67 69 69 67 56 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 67 69 69 67 56 40 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 63 63 63 60 49 40 34 31 30 31 33 SHEAR (KT) 25 21 16 26 33 45 34 34 38 34 37 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 8 13 14 11 3 1 0 6 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 178 194 193 192 195 200 175 160 172 176 181 180 185 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.9 21.8 15.0 15.5 14.4 13.1 12.6 12.0 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 133 128 92 74 72 69 67 67 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 121 120 117 85 71 68 65 64 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -49.2 -49.1 -48.2 -47.4 -46.3 -46.2 -46.8 -47.5 -47.5 -47.0 -47.7 -48.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 55 54 50 42 33 35 46 40 45 43 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 42 46 46 48 48 52 47 33 26 23 20 19 10 850 MB ENV VOR 174 165 178 182 195 258 260 202 126 135 191 189 108 200 MB DIV 83 101 163 150 74 72 68 55 44 61 70 77 48 LAND (KM) 1025 1021 909 797 700 477 321 725 1045 1212 1213 1278 1365 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 33.5 35.0 36.7 38.4 42.5 46.9 49.9 51.6 53.6 56.1 58.5 61.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.1 64.4 62.5 60.6 55.2 48.7 43.2 39.1 37.4 37.7 37.7 36.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 19 23 26 30 28 20 13 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 31 26 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -24. -27. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -18. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. -9. -25. -39. -51. -60. -68. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/20/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)