* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 44 42 47 47 42 33 26 10 12 16 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 3 5 10 14 8 0 0 1 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 305 309 322 335 347 343 244 177 194 276 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 24.6 23.6 22.2 21.0 19.9 19.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 113 111 109 103 96 89 83 80 79 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 96 95 94 92 88 83 78 74 72 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 -49.5 -48.1 -50.1 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 51 46 40 35 33 29 37 27 22 29 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 18 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -113 -119 -126 -127 -121 -61 13 92 110 68 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -77 -81 -98 -84 -3 24 -1 -13 0 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1342 1325 1311 1283 1262 1233 1262 1359 1495 1666 1559 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.4 35.7 36.3 36.9 38.4 39.8 41.1 42.4 43.7 45.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.1 48.3 47.4 46.4 45.4 43.1 40.7 38.0 35.2 32.1 28.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -34. -45. -54. -59. -61. -62. -65. -67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -69.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/20/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)