* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 58 63 65 65 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 58 63 65 65 63 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 41 49 58 66 72 74 73 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 2 4 5 1 2 4 3 5 9 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 2 -2 0 0 4 2 1 2 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 211 269 304 209 251 326 271 10 253 286 232 247 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 133 131 128 128 127 129 130 130 130 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 122 119 116 115 114 117 119 119 119 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 56 56 54 47 39 36 33 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 98 86 83 86 89 104 124 110 96 70 63 42 33 200 MB DIV 37 -3 10 36 37 33 0 20 1 4 0 -3 -20 LAND (KM) 1514 1574 1635 1669 1703 1768 1822 1894 2000 2073 1997 1925 1879 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.6 32.2 32.7 33.0 33.3 33.9 34.4 35.1 36.1 37.4 38.6 39.7 40.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 17 19 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 33. 38. 40. 40. 38. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/20/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)