* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 65 66 66 61 48 40 25 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 65 66 66 61 48 40 25 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 64 64 63 55 44 37 32 30 30 33 38 SHEAR (KT) 19 22 32 31 38 44 33 39 30 19 23 20 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 10 8 10 9 -2 0 5 9 4 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 190 199 199 212 208 200 171 179 187 212 215 232 207 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.5 26.7 25.4 16.2 14.4 17.3 15.0 13.2 11.9 9.2 9.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 134 126 115 76 72 74 70 72 70 62 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 121 115 105 73 69 69 66 69 67 60 63 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.3 -48.3 -48.2 -47.6 -45.9 -44.9 -47.0 -48.5 -47.7 -47.7 -48.7 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 49 45 37 39 40 39 34 43 68 75 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 44 45 48 50 52 44 42 34 38 31 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 164 174 186 194 243 266 269 204 45 58 88 194 206 200 MB DIV 68 118 161 106 85 49 59 11 25 45 29 6 23 LAND (KM) 1036 943 805 708 597 197 567 974 1238 1337 1276 1060 1129 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.0 36.6 38.5 40.4 45.1 47.9 49.1 50.7 54.7 61.6 63.3 61.0 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 63.8 62.6 60.3 57.9 52.0 45.2 39.7 36.1 35.6 38.0 40.5 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 22 26 29 29 23 17 15 28 22 5 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 17 CX,CY: 7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 0. -2. -8. -5. -11. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. -4. -17. -25. -40. -44. -56. -65. -71. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/20/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)