* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 32 29 25 21 19 18 18 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 42 44 44 39 34 18 19 32 20 23 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 7 8 8 9 3 -6 4 4 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 308 312 319 321 334 340 269 248 247 253 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.3 24.5 23.6 22.3 21.1 20.2 19.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 111 109 107 101 95 89 83 81 79 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 95 93 92 91 86 82 77 74 72 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -49.4 -50.8 -53.0 -54.4 -55.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 46 41 38 34 34 32 31 19 25 30 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 15 13 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -121 -135 -138 -122 -119 -39 -43 -35 -65 -68 -102 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -64 -58 -53 -90 -75 11 0 -10 -23 -34 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1329 1305 1286 1271 1263 1252 1289 1371 1495 1654 1629 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.8 36.2 36.7 37.2 38.5 39.7 40.9 42.1 43.3 44.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.3 47.5 46.6 45.7 44.7 42.6 40.4 38.0 35.4 32.5 29.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -6. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -20. -32. -41. -49. -55. -59. -61. -64. -67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -68.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/20/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)