* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 40 46 55 57 59 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 40 46 55 57 59 59 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 44 52 60 64 67 68 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 8 5 4 3 4 6 7 10 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 248 249 228 262 323 164 329 189 253 248 254 257 260 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 128 128 128 132 134 134 133 133 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 117 116 116 116 120 124 126 124 123 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 51 53 51 51 45 40 33 33 32 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 80 76 84 87 85 118 113 105 97 72 60 33 21 200 MB DIV -9 17 32 21 33 33 4 4 14 -20 -11 -25 -14 LAND (KM) 1593 1645 1696 1735 1773 1847 1917 2043 2011 1892 1789 1711 1627 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.3 32.8 33.2 33.6 33.9 34.6 35.3 36.5 38.0 39.7 41.2 42.5 43.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 3 3 5 7 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 16 22 38 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 30. 32. 34. 34. 33. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/20/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)