* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 09/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 32 31 28 24 20 16 21 20 24 26 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 20 22 17 15 20 14 13 12 13 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 1 -2 3 0 1 -2 -5 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 90 86 80 86 88 115 127 172 198 198 227 172 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 25.9 24.5 23.5 26.1 30.1 30.5 30.3 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 137 133 121 106 96 124 164 167 164 163 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 4 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 79 80 77 76 72 68 57 50 47 45 47 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 91 93 91 80 57 48 41 50 24 27 -11 0 200 MB DIV 36 22 25 26 13 -14 32 9 8 -6 0 3 3 LAND (KM) 260 306 265 200 157 170 136 106 -26 58 -36 -64 -31 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.7 23.7 25.1 26.7 28.0 28.9 29.4 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.6 111.9 112.9 113.3 112.7 111.9 111.5 111.6 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 6 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 7 4 2 0 0 0 27 36 96 37 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 16. 21. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -13. -17. -16. -15. -11. -9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 09/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 09/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY