* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 59 49 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 59 49 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 64 63 60 48 38 32 28 25 25 27 31 SHEAR (KT) 24 32 33 39 46 35 47 49 50 43 35 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 12 7 14 -1 -2 -6 1 2 4 10 13 SHEAR DIR 187 197 204 210 206 164 187 174 165 186 200 185 178 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.0 20.5 14.7 16.6 14.1 11.6 11.1 7.7 6.5 7.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 113 88 73 74 72 69 65 62 58 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 115 106 82 70 69 69 67 63 61 N/A 59 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -47.8 -47.5 -47.3 -46.5 -45.3 -46.8 -46.8 -46.5 -47.8 -48.9 -48.8 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 51 44 39 40 37 39 37 53 58 63 73 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 45 48 48 49 45 37 34 17 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 179 195 203 241 248 242 196 138 53 29 83 100 111 200 MB DIV 108 152 82 53 67 64 36 34 59 70 47 30 44 LAND (KM) 905 820 738 599 418 375 776 1072 1280 1300 1087 999 1097 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.5 37.8 40.4 43.0 46.8 47.9 51.6 57.5 60.6 60.4 61.2 60.8 LONG(DEG W) 64.3 62.7 61.0 57.9 54.7 48.0 42.4 38.7 37.1 39.1 43.8 45.4 43.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 27 35 33 25 19 25 22 11 8 1 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 18 CX,CY: 6/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -25. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -5. -7. -19. -29. -30. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -16. -31. -40. -62. -80. -87. -94.-103. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/20/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)