* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 32 29 25 22 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 40 38 36 36 29 21 37 22 29 29 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 7 7 7 6 -8 11 7 12 14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 329 325 334 342 313 229 234 234 251 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.2 24.8 23.6 22.1 20.7 19.6 19.2 18.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 111 107 104 96 88 82 79 78 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 94 91 89 83 77 74 72 71 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -49.3 -51.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 42 38 37 34 33 28 22 23 27 37 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 13 9 7 4 12 27 18 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -120 -130 -130 -128 -84 16 16 2 -17 -21 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -50 -57 -83 -83 -8 13 -8 -26 -1 -9 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1435 1397 1365 1315 1273 1193 1216 1343 1521 1598 1258 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.3 35.9 36.8 37.6 39.8 41.6 43.1 44.5 45.6 46.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.8 46.1 45.3 44.5 43.7 41.8 39.6 36.8 33.6 29.8 25.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -9. -5. 5. -1. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -22. -32. -34. -31. -43. -58. -61. -64. -67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -56.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/20/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)