* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 50 57 59 61 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 50 57 59 61 60 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 49 56 63 67 69 70 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 4 3 7 1 9 7 9 10 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -3 0 -3 -1 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 241 225 261 318 204 252 102 231 281 263 287 258 268 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 128 128 128 128 130 132 132 131 130 129 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 116 115 115 115 118 121 122 120 117 116 116 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 57 55 54 54 52 44 40 38 34 33 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 71 77 79 78 98 120 102 103 79 76 62 52 38 200 MB DIV 20 37 25 35 52 -3 15 18 -1 -14 -1 -20 -8 LAND (KM) 1593 1633 1674 1707 1740 1793 1864 1959 2097 2034 1976 1951 1927 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.3 32.7 33.0 33.3 33.6 34.1 34.8 35.7 37.0 38.2 39.1 39.7 40.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 17 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 25. 32. 34. 36. 36. 33. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/20/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)