* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 09/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 28 23 19 18 23 23 25 30 SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 18 16 24 18 13 11 13 11 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 2 -2 1 5 0 -1 -2 -6 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 87 83 81 87 80 97 113 128 173 184 214 191 218 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.9 25.9 24.7 24.5 27.1 29.2 29.9 30.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 137 132 121 109 107 134 155 161 162 154 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 5 3 3 2 3 1 3 0 4 0 700-500 MB RH 82 80 77 76 70 66 56 50 45 43 42 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 92 94 82 65 55 40 43 36 18 8 0 -4 200 MB DIV 26 28 28 15 -10 23 16 4 2 -1 0 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 285 310 217 156 129 147 87 79 -44 44 12 -1 44 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.5 22.0 23.0 24.1 25.6 27.0 28.3 29.3 29.9 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.9 109.5 110.2 110.8 111.9 112.7 112.9 112.5 112.4 112.5 112.8 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 13 16 44 42 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 13. 17. 21. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -15. -15. -13. -10. -7. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 09/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 09/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED