* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 57 53 43 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 57 53 43 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 63 59 54 44 35 29 27 27 29 33 38 SHEAR (KT) 32 32 38 44 40 37 39 22 15 25 20 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 2 14 5 -3 -2 -2 5 9 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 207 213 207 207 201 173 154 147 171 183 156 185 195 SST (C) 26.9 26.0 24.5 20.4 16.1 13.4 13.6 11.8 10.7 7.0 6.8 6.4 7.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 119 107 87 76 71 70 67 66 66 64 60 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 108 98 81 72 69 67 64 64 65 63 N/A 63 200 MB T (C) -47.8 -48.2 -47.8 -46.9 -45.4 -44.5 -45.1 -45.0 -46.0 -47.5 -48.5 -49.0 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 49 44 43 42 39 43 54 56 58 71 79 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 45 45 46 48 50 47 42 33 20 13 6 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 183 189 223 235 222 257 225 184 176 126 117 129 196 200 MB DIV 134 78 58 81 49 61 41 40 66 52 -45 -56 -39 LAND (KM) 741 656 538 414 208 499 867 1038 1075 1057 636 514 813 LAT (DEG N) 37.2 39.1 41.0 43.1 45.1 48.8 52.3 55.2 58.1 61.0 64.2 66.0 64.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 60.3 57.9 54.8 51.7 46.2 42.1 40.3 41.1 44.3 49.2 50.2 44.6 STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 29 31 28 24 18 15 15 18 14 5 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 23 CX,CY: 13/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -20. -26. -30. -33. -35. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. -30. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -18. -24. -30. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -12. -22. -35. -48. -63. -74. -88. -94.-100. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/20/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)