* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 09/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 50 56 62 63 63 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 42 50 56 62 63 63 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 60 66 71 72 71 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 5 8 4 1 4 3 7 7 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 1 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 250 276 5 116 176 32 173 304 356 304 295 293 267 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 127 126 124 125 125 126 126 125 125 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 115 113 110 112 112 114 113 112 111 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 59 58 51 48 44 44 45 41 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 70 67 70 86 97 88 94 75 64 49 42 24 14 200 MB DIV 27 13 23 54 42 13 31 9 8 0 -11 -7 7 LAND (KM) 1561 1586 1612 1627 1642 1674 1750 1848 1962 2048 2122 2158 2194 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.6 32.9 33.6 34.5 35.6 36.5 37.3 37.7 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 2 2 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 10 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 15 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 25. 31. 37. 38. 38. 35. 34. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 09/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 09/20/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)