* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 09/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 34 31 28 28 33 37 39 43 43 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 34 31 27 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 36 32 27 28 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 22 20 21 14 11 21 8 7 8 9 9 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 0 3 -2 0 0 -5 -2 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 80 80 90 91 81 107 127 174 238 238 279 260 292 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.1 27.7 30.5 31.0 30.4 29.7 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 139 134 141 169 170 167 160 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 5 4 4 3 5 3 5 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 77 75 74 69 63 51 47 45 42 44 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 98 87 68 61 56 43 70 38 37 3 17 -8 200 MB DIV 35 27 2 -14 -5 35 16 7 -5 2 3 3 -22 LAND (KM) 304 265 188 112 54 42 -40 55 -59 -152 -172 -129 -39 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.6 25.2 26.9 28.3 29.3 30.1 30.7 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.0 109.4 109.9 110.3 111.1 111.4 110.8 110.1 110.1 110.8 111.6 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 7 4 1 27 56 21 7 0 0 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -7. -2. 2. 4. 8. 8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 09/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 09/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY