* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 54 48 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 54 48 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 60 54 48 39 31 26 24 25 28 35 44 SHEAR (KT) 38 43 48 46 39 37 38 21 15 8 14 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 13 12 4 9 -2 3 -3 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 202 212 211 199 171 167 161 147 197 249 240 224 239 SST (C) 26.1 24.5 20.9 16.2 14.1 13.3 11.4 8.6 7.0 6.6 4.1 3.7 6.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 107 88 77 73 71 67 64 65 67 65 60 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 97 82 73 70 68 65 63 63 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -47.8 -47.3 -46.3 -45.2 -44.2 -43.6 -43.2 -43.9 -45.1 -46.7 -49.1 -50.2 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 40 41 41 54 55 66 72 82 84 82 86 GFS VTEX (KT) 43 44 50 53 50 45 38 37 34 29 25 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 191 221 246 239 293 329 265 263 280 253 168 67 121 200 MB DIV 84 50 78 60 74 72 95 65 58 -35 -72 -76 -47 LAND (KM) 656 544 433 168 239 611 733 882 905 543 145 200 355 LAT (DEG N) 39.0 41.0 42.9 45.3 47.6 52.3 56.3 58.9 60.9 63.8 67.9 69.8 67.1 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 57.9 55.3 52.5 49.6 46.2 45.8 46.0 47.6 52.2 59.6 61.4 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 29 31 28 22 16 12 15 22 17 6 21 HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -23. -29. -33. -36. -37. -37. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -25. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 1. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -17. -28. -43. -53. -61. -68. -76. -86. -92. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/21/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)