* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN AL142010 09/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 46 49 53 56 56 53 49 45 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 46 49 53 56 56 53 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 56 59 62 64 64 62 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 6 6 7 12 8 7 11 17 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 10 115 196 284 332 228 312 293 282 272 276 261 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 123 121 120 119 121 123 123 124 122 123 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 110 108 106 104 108 111 111 111 108 108 106 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 59 54 48 43 37 32 30 32 30 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 72 73 88 96 98 93 92 70 70 56 50 37 30 200 MB DIV 10 49 51 45 19 -5 -2 -5 -3 -3 -15 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1558 1571 1586 1587 1580 1596 1637 1741 1851 1961 2007 2054 2081 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.8 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 32.0 32.0 32.0 31.9 32.1 32.5 33.5 34.6 35.7 36.2 36.7 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 1 3 5 5 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 10 11 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 19. 23. 26. 26. 23. 19. 15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 FOURTEEN 09/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 FOURTEEN 09/21/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)