* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 09/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 32 30 26 25 27 29 28 27 22 18 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 32 30 25 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 35 33 28 29 26 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 14 17 7 11 16 20 24 25 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 74 76 74 88 96 122 145 227 220 245 255 270 283 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 30.3 30.7 29.4 27.8 26.0 25.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 140 138 140 169 171 157 139 120 114 105 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 5 5 3 5 4 6 1 7 1 5 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 68 64 58 51 48 45 44 44 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 87 71 60 59 50 61 63 25 11 5 -10 -7 200 MB DIV 28 16 -9 -2 32 22 16 -2 3 13 2 -12 -18 LAND (KM) 244 160 78 36 36 -37 68 -118 -294 -390 -375 -315 -249 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.8 26.9 28.8 30.2 31.1 31.7 31.9 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.4 110.8 111.3 111.0 109.8 108.9 108.7 109.1 109.8 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 9 11 9 7 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 1 1 25 48 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -5. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 3. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -8. -6. -7. -8. -13. -17. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 09/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 09/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY