* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 55 49 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 55 49 43 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 55 49 43 33 26 22 20 21 25 30 38 SHEAR (KT) 40 49 47 44 34 30 27 18 8 5 9 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 12 18 19 -1 -1 0 -5 0 3 9 4 SHEAR DIR 211 213 199 174 154 160 159 130 117 204 207 249 238 SST (C) 24.1 18.8 15.4 12.6 13.1 10.9 9.4 7.7 5.4 3.8 3.6 5.1 6.1 POT. INT. (KT) 105 82 76 73 72 69 67 63 63 64 63 63 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 78 73 71 70 67 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -47.6 -46.6 -44.9 -43.9 -43.3 -43.2 -42.1 -45.2 -46.9 -48.0 -49.1 -49.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 45 50 52 61 71 78 83 85 89 85 87 GFS VTEX (KT) 44 48 49 51 51 44 34 32 29 23 20 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 225 249 247 324 325 235 260 245 217 180 120 58 166 200 MB DIV 44 84 58 92 93 117 76 -20 -41 -48 -89 -97 -86 LAND (KM) 560 333 167 310 588 656 538 330 214 94 228 377 568 LAT (DEG N) 41.3 43.7 46.1 49.2 52.3 57.4 60.8 62.9 64.7 67.1 70.4 71.8 69.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 54.0 51.1 48.9 46.6 48.6 54.7 57.9 58.7 59.7 61.7 58.9 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 31 32 33 34 29 24 18 11 11 15 12 10 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 36 CX,CY: 28/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -27. -32. -35. -37. -38. -37. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -23. -25. -26. -27. -29. -31. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. -1. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -22. -36. -53. -65. -74. -83. -92.-101.-106. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/21/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)