* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 47 50 53 53 55 54 50 44 37 30 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 47 50 53 53 55 54 50 44 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 49 53 55 58 60 61 59 55 49 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 5 8 7 14 9 16 21 30 33 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 1 2 -5 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 235 232 198 232 253 223 260 293 283 279 279 261 258 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 120 121 120 121 120 119 118 115 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 108 107 107 107 108 108 106 104 102 98 97 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 56 54 46 36 31 34 36 35 39 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 14 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 71 83 90 92 89 86 64 53 53 40 27 16 -1 200 MB DIV 34 48 26 5 20 12 -24 -2 12 1 1 7 1 LAND (KM) 1555 1549 1544 1549 1553 1584 1657 1752 1848 1906 1900 1903 1914 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.8 23.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 31.7 31.6 31.6 31.6 32.0 32.8 33.8 34.8 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 18. 20. 19. 15. 9. 2. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/21/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)