* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962010 09/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 29 26 25 24 27 28 26 24 19 15 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 29 26 25 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 30 26 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 21 20 6 13 16 23 22 24 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 3 0 -1 -1 -6 -1 -2 1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 76 76 89 99 107 153 182 230 235 239 245 262 282 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.3 30.6 30.3 29.0 26.9 25.5 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 139 137 134 137 171 167 152 130 115 108 105 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 77 75 70 65 65 55 51 46 43 42 43 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 73 61 62 56 48 77 34 33 0 11 -18 2 200 MB DIV 12 -8 -6 19 17 13 27 13 3 10 7 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 171 84 40 36 17 -26 14 -153 -244 -249 -226 -194 -177 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.1 25.9 27.9 29.4 30.5 31.4 31.9 32.2 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.3 111.9 111.2 110.4 110.2 110.4 110.8 111.4 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 7 5 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 1 1 1 21 22 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 24. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -8. -7. -9. -11. -16. -20. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962010 INVEST 09/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962010 INVEST 09/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY