* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 47 40 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 47 40 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 55 49 43 34 28 25 24 26 30 36 43 SHEAR (KT) 52 44 41 33 32 20 16 11 6 6 9 13 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 14 8 1 7 -3 -1 0 3 6 6 0 SHEAR DIR 209 188 169 151 152 167 124 142 153 187 206 211 263 SST (C) 17.1 13.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 9.4 7.7 6.5 6.9 5.8 3.4 3.8 6.2 POT. INT. (KT) 79 74 71 70 69 68 65 60 59 62 62 61 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 72 69 68 67 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -45.9 -45.0 -43.9 -43.9 -43.0 -42.8 -44.6 -45.4 -46.2 -47.4 -48.9 -49.8 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 48 50 52 56 68 74 77 84 86 85 84 88 GFS VTEX (KT) 48 49 49 49 46 31 36 31 24 20 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 247 276 350 330 238 270 274 251 206 164 172 157 175 200 MB DIV 59 76 96 81 91 110 -12 -43 -32 -49 -55 -62 -60 LAND (KM) 211 74 306 466 576 731 437 258 246 179 12 108 348 LAT (DEG N) 44.8 47.8 50.7 53.2 55.6 59.6 63.0 63.8 63.1 63.7 66.3 67.4 66.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.8 51.8 49.8 48.9 48.0 50.0 55.5 58.6 59.5 60.4 61.7 59.8 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 35 32 29 25 22 21 14 4 2 8 10 8 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 40 CX,CY: 26/ 31 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -16. -24. -30. -35. -38. -40. -40. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -2. -4. -6. -8. -14. -20. -23. -24. -25. -27. -30. -31. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -11. -9. -12. -18. -21. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -25. -45. -52. -63. -75. -83. -93.-101.-107. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)