* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 51 54 56 57 59 58 53 47 40 34 V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 51 54 56 57 59 58 53 47 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 54 58 61 64 65 66 63 58 52 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 8 6 8 8 5 14 20 26 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 2 6 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 210 220 261 317 336 257 319 251 275 264 258 252 256 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 120 120 119 120 121 120 119 119 120 120 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 106 106 105 107 108 107 105 105 106 106 106 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 64 60 55 51 44 34 36 38 42 37 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 12 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 74 85 89 87 90 81 60 58 41 46 41 35 17 200 MB DIV 24 22 29 18 20 4 2 16 12 -18 10 0 17 LAND (KM) 1552 1551 1551 1558 1559 1594 1679 1766 1833 1893 1942 2021 2112 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.3 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.7 31.7 31.6 31.7 31.7 32.1 33.0 33.9 34.6 35.2 35.7 36.5 37.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 4 5 4 3 3 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 18. 13. 7. 0. -6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)