* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 34 49 66 81 92 101 109 114 120 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 34 49 66 81 92 101 109 114 120 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 26 29 38 50 66 87 108 122 128 128 SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 7 8 4 4 8 6 12 12 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -6 -5 -5 0 0 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 25 42 315 284 333 93 12 70 9 89 78 69 57 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 170 172 172 171 171 171 171 169 163 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 169 172 172 172 172 173 173 173 172 164 168 166 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 9 10 11 9 9 8 10 8 9 6 700-500 MB RH 75 71 72 69 66 66 66 66 64 67 70 75 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 13 15 18 18 17 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 30 38 35 31 50 70 87 105 123 151 139 90 200 MB DIV 74 77 70 50 32 45 61 74 63 46 47 67 33 LAND (KM) 166 183 222 233 216 124 140 308 387 246 43 92 0 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.9 64.9 66.2 67.4 69.8 72.5 75.2 78.0 80.9 83.7 86.3 88.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 97 89 97 100 104 100 95 119 71 95 6 116 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 2. 12. 22. 29. 36. 41. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 29. 46. 61. 72. 81. 89. 94. 100. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 151.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)