* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGOR AL112010 09/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 55 48 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 55 48 37 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 60 54 48 39 33 31 30 32 36 39 44 SHEAR (KT) 43 39 36 28 21 22 13 10 7 6 12 11 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 9 5 3 5 0 -2 -2 0 5 0 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 179 165 146 165 166 153 118 106 137 175 149 148 207 SST (C) 13.5 11.3 11.3 11.2 10.7 8.7 5.0 3.8 5.7 6.4 4.8 5.6 7.8 POT. INT. (KT) 74 70 70 70 69 67 62 57 60 60 59 60 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 69 68 68 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 60 200 MB T (C) -44.6 -43.3 -43.6 -43.1 -43.1 -43.6 -45.0 -45.6 -46.5 -46.5 -47.2 -48.3 -49.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 50 50 57 63 74 79 81 81 82 79 86 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 47 50 48 46 39 40 33 26 19 15 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 278 338 320 249 258 264 199 176 154 110 85 109 84 200 MB DIV 92 81 98 102 102 29 -53 -54 -44 -38 -24 -11 -5 LAND (KM) 55 232 412 463 634 472 120 35 165 202 105 151 298 LAT (DEG N) 48.0 50.6 53.2 55.7 58.1 61.9 63.8 64.2 63.5 62.7 62.2 61.8 62.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 51.0 49.7 50.1 50.5 55.7 61.6 63.1 60.9 60.6 62.5 61.7 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 32 27 26 25 23 20 10 1 5 4 3 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 38 CX,CY: 19/ 33 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -19. -27. -34. -39. -43. -45. -46. -46. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -20. -22. -24. -25. -29. -32. -35. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -11. -15. -21. -25. -27. -29. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -22. -33. -48. -61. -75. -87. -99.-110.-118. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112010 IGOR 09/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)