* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 50 50 52 53 50 45 40 33 29 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 50 50 52 53 50 45 40 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 50 54 56 58 59 59 56 51 46 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 9 8 7 10 12 13 17 25 31 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 2 7 5 -3 -2 -1 1 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 216 317 344 350 320 294 324 301 293 283 266 266 255 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 120 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 105 105 106 107 106 105 105 106 105 106 110 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 63 58 55 52 47 37 36 39 39 41 43 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 15 13 11 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 76 83 83 86 81 56 49 37 30 29 17 14 10 200 MB DIV 12 29 35 7 9 -2 13 0 -13 -2 12 -6 5 LAND (KM) 1549 1553 1549 1556 1563 1617 1704 1783 1842 1900 1969 2063 2168 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.2 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.8 32.4 33.3 34.1 34.7 35.3 36.0 36.9 37.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. 10. 5. 0. -7. -11. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)