* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 44 57 74 87 96 105 108 111 114 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 44 57 74 87 96 105 65 50 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 32 36 41 53 71 93 114 127 78 55 58 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 2 7 5 2 13 11 13 10 15 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 311 300 284 352 40 317 43 78 58 83 45 63 60 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.9 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 172 172 172 171 171 171 171 165 163 168 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 172 172 172 173 173 173 172 168 163 164 164 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 12 9 10 8 9 9 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 67 65 64 67 64 65 66 68 71 77 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 10 13 14 16 17 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 33 29 39 61 79 96 110 131 152 136 78 200 MB DIV 76 69 50 25 34 51 54 62 67 74 62 63 32 LAND (KM) 189 235 235 195 155 70 233 351 390 107 -108 3 -14 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.1 65.3 66.4 67.7 68.9 71.5 74.2 76.9 79.6 82.2 84.9 87.1 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 89 99 95 104 111 94 105 91 75 6 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 19. 32. 49. 62. 71. 80. 83. 86. 89. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)