* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 15 17 19 23 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 15 17 19 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 8 9 14 17 14 12 10 10 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 1 0 -4 -6 -6 -4 -8 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 224 170 216 231 259 244 254 247 272 269 313 320 300 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 135 134 134 130 129 129 131 133 135 138 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 50 52 52 51 52 47 48 44 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -9 -15 -14 -15 -2 6 17 31 200 MB DIV -3 -12 -19 -14 -20 -14 -3 34 20 6 7 2 28 LAND (KM) 824 761 700 656 615 544 505 522 583 684 846 1026 1171 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.7 14.1 13.4 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 152.3 152.8 153.3 153.8 154.3 155.5 156.8 158.0 159.2 160.4 161.9 163.5 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 32 31 30 28 23 10 16 29 31 35 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -3. -1. 3. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY