* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 46 46 48 48 47 42 37 31 27 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 46 46 48 48 47 42 37 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 45 48 50 52 54 53 51 46 42 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 6 8 14 11 17 19 28 39 41 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 6 8 5 -3 -1 0 0 -6 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 252 299 321 328 293 319 308 297 272 276 255 264 260 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 119 120 120 119 119 119 119 120 122 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 106 106 107 108 106 105 105 105 107 109 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 59 54 51 50 42 33 32 29 30 32 33 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 8 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 83 85 92 91 82 71 70 48 52 33 37 28 40 200 MB DIV 34 46 32 30 30 -2 8 9 0 -4 7 8 10 LAND (KM) 1518 1523 1518 1535 1553 1629 1704 1772 1831 1891 1971 2075 2201 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 20.9 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 31.3 31.3 31.5 31.7 32.5 33.3 34.0 34.6 35.2 36.0 37.0 38.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 2. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 2. -3. -9. -13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)