* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 55 71 87 97 106 109 112 115 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 55 71 87 97 106 69 74 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 51 66 86 110 129 84 96 81 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 9 4 8 4 7 6 12 18 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 353 270 331 358 317 342 59 43 96 59 61 70 76 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 172 172 171 171 171 171 171 162 167 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 172 172 172 172 172 172 172 173 162 165 164 163 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.3 -52.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 11 11 9 10 7 9 8 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 61 66 61 64 66 68 66 71 74 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 8 8 9 10 14 17 18 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 32 41 51 70 86 109 108 140 169 119 91 200 MB DIV 74 46 23 37 53 44 54 45 43 56 48 60 24 LAND (KM) 212 212 198 151 102 110 277 412 333 44 -16 35 -34 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 66.3 67.4 68.6 69.8 72.3 74.9 77.5 80.1 82.8 85.5 87.6 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 93 90 95 106 96 96 114 74 83 2 0 40 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 30. 46. 62. 72. 81. 84. 87. 90. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)