* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 23 24 25 25 24 22 22 22 27 33 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 23 24 25 25 24 22 22 22 27 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 20 20 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 4 9 9 10 13 13 14 12 12 14 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 347 248 256 256 261 264 266 267 297 309 335 1 59 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 135 132 130 130 130 133 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 50 49 54 52 52 54 51 53 50 46 42 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 -12 -9 -13 -15 -20 -19 -15 -1 9 22 43 200 MB DIV -11 -15 -7 -8 1 14 12 15 -5 -7 -7 10 43 LAND (KM) 794 738 685 639 600 556 551 595 676 815 989 1136 1285 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.2 13.6 12.9 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 153.0 153.6 154.1 154.8 155.4 156.7 158.0 159.1 160.3 161.6 163.2 164.8 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 34 33 33 31 28 11 14 28 31 33 39 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 7. 13. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY