* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP122010 09/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 27 29 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 24 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 26 27 27 27 28 29 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 5 7 12 16 40 48 60 41 30 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 -4 -1 6 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 112 237 231 217 250 252 258 274 331 2 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.3 30.4 27.2 18.9 16.5 15.9 15.5 14.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 164 169 171 137 62 62 60 60 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -53.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 3 5 1 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 67 63 57 54 33 25 21 25 23 19 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 73 65 65 75 67 17 -7 -18 -46 -80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 5 8 17 22 -7 -20 -11 -55 -79 -57 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 35 51 32 -29 -106 -340 -632 -813 -959 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.5 26.8 28.0 29.1 32.0 34.2 37.1 39.1 40.5 42.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.7 111.2 111.5 111.8 112.6 112.4 112.1 111.6 111.1 111.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 13 13 13 12 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 27 40 42 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 13. 12. 8. 4. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. -8. -21. -32. -38. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 3. 8. 11. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -2. -12. -25. -38. -50. -56. -61. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY