* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 43 45 46 45 42 37 31 27 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 42 43 45 46 45 42 37 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 46 48 50 52 52 50 46 41 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 9 11 10 6 12 18 20 35 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 6 7 6 2 1 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 315 323 296 295 300 333 286 269 272 258 258 254 266 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 119 119 120 120 120 120 120 120 122 122 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 105 105 106 107 107 106 107 108 110 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 54 49 45 41 38 31 34 35 31 32 31 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 89 97 90 87 76 67 64 49 46 37 33 14 17 200 MB DIV 39 35 42 22 0 14 0 -20 -12 4 -1 -8 2 LAND (KM) 1438 1446 1453 1460 1466 1510 1581 1640 1686 1775 1934 2056 2161 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.4 20.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 31.2 32.0 32.6 33.1 34.0 35.6 36.8 37.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 1 1 3 4 3 4 6 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 9 10 12 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/22/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)