* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 48 63 78 89 99 106 111 115 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 48 63 78 89 70 43 48 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 54 70 89 84 47 57 50 SHEAR (KT) 4 13 11 7 8 10 11 12 6 7 14 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 345 7 25 20 346 38 58 52 80 73 58 70 49 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 168 170 171 170 170 166 161 166 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 172 170 172 172 172 172 167 160 161 162 158 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 11 9 10 8 9 9 9 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 65 67 66 66 67 69 72 76 79 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 10 11 14 16 15 15 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 39 47 60 81 96 103 122 137 151 105 94 200 MB DIV 36 18 22 25 34 72 46 62 64 98 65 66 90 LAND (KM) 174 128 80 71 62 215 355 401 151 -73 -29 57 -37 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 68.7 69.8 71.0 72.1 74.6 77.1 79.5 81.8 84.2 86.3 87.9 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 9 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 84 97 76 68 89 103 86 75 38 48 87 38 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 23. 38. 53. 64. 74. 81. 86. 90. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/22/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)