* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 29 27 25 21 20 20 22 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 29 27 25 21 20 20 22 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 27 28 27 25 23 21 20 19 18 18 18 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 12 13 12 9 16 22 24 20 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 -4 -4 -6 -3 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 246 257 255 259 272 269 306 313 329 334 312 293 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 134 133 129 128 128 129 132 134 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 48 51 53 53 53 51 49 46 45 41 39 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -12 -10 -8 -8 -17 -16 -18 0 12 29 39 47 200 MB DIV -5 -5 -6 6 20 -4 -7 -16 -15 -18 0 18 -1 LAND (KM) 712 657 607 561 522 483 493 550 652 816 995 1117 1223 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.4 13.7 13.2 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 153.0 153.6 154.2 154.9 155.5 156.8 158.0 159.1 160.3 161.8 163.5 165.0 166.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 28 26 17 8 11 25 30 34 38 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY