* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP122010 09/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 26 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 25 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 4 8 16 27 45 56 57 37 42 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 -7 7 10 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 101 217 209 196 222 245 251 257 311 353 14 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.4 30.7 30.4 29.3 21.1 17.8 16.6 16.0 15.5 14.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 171 173 170 159 73 62 62 61 60 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -50.3 -50.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.7 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 4 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 63 60 53 47 32 22 23 30 26 20 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 71 77 82 86 24 15 -55 -27 -38 -90 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 9 36 36 1 -12 0 -12 -55 -52 -50 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 59 69 -7 -94 -175 -297 -541 -889 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.7 28.1 29.3 30.4 33.3 35.5 38.6 40.6 42.1 43.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 110.8 111.1 111.1 111.0 111.2 110.5 109.5 108.7 107.9 107.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 11 13 13 14 13 9 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 53 6 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 9. 7. 2. -1. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 0. -11. -24. -37. -48. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 7. 12. 15. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. -1. -6. -17. -31. -47. -63. -71. -78. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY