* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 43 48 49 52 52 50 43 37 33 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 43 48 49 52 52 50 43 37 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 42 44 46 51 56 60 60 57 52 47 SHEAR (KT) 1 1 6 6 3 1 7 9 15 23 34 38 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 4 5 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 233 249 271 330 56 265 239 260 249 267 249 249 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 124 123 124 124 126 127 127 125 125 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 110 109 110 110 114 116 117 114 115 118 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 52 50 53 46 42 37 35 36 31 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 89 84 79 65 54 42 23 36 31 40 34 34 22 200 MB DIV 35 57 31 19 11 26 20 6 5 13 3 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1422 1416 1410 1409 1409 1418 1461 1562 1707 1843 1958 2110 2275 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.6 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 31.0 31.9 33.2 34.4 35.6 37.2 38.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 0 1 1 3 6 6 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 14 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 7. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 9. 12. 12. 10. 3. -3. -7. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/22/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)