* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 38 51 68 83 92 99 105 111 114 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 38 51 68 83 80 49 55 38 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 45 59 76 93 50 59 42 31 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 9 3 8 13 14 11 10 12 12 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -3 -5 4 0 2 0 0 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 25 46 79 95 26 70 56 73 74 69 88 67 55 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.8 30.2 30.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 168 170 170 168 170 168 161 167 171 168 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 168 170 172 172 171 172 169 162 166 169 158 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.4 -52.4 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 9 7 8 7 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 72 68 70 70 70 70 66 71 72 77 80 81 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 11 15 18 16 12 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 25 41 49 59 74 90 108 113 130 150 108 103 112 200 MB DIV 20 19 30 32 43 58 64 60 75 89 79 74 42 LAND (KM) 78 71 44 94 175 263 433 250 -10 -34 43 -134 -168 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.4 71.4 72.6 73.7 76.2 78.6 80.9 83.3 85.8 88.0 89.6 90.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 88 31 58 98 97 103 69 74 0 83 48 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 13. 26. 43. 58. 67. 74. 80. 86. 89. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/22/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)