* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 25 23 22 20 21 21 23 24 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 25 23 22 20 21 21 23 24 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 26 24 23 22 22 23 24 24 25 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 14 12 7 11 13 16 20 19 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -5 -5 -5 0 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 213 248 260 252 265 282 273 299 329 339 336 325 309 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 134 133 132 132 131 132 133 135 135 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 54 53 52 54 50 47 41 44 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -10 -6 -13 -21 -15 -13 -5 7 28 41 57 200 MB DIV 9 2 28 44 38 15 5 -3 4 5 9 -7 -14 LAND (KM) 648 616 592 582 580 611 693 801 946 1090 1246 1399 1552 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.1 13.6 13.1 12.6 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 154.9 155.6 156.2 156.9 157.5 158.9 160.3 161.7 163.3 165.2 167.0 168.6 170.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 26 22 26 16 31 29 32 38 39 41 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED